URN: urn:nbn:ch:unige-395545 Available at:

SORG, Annina The Tien Shan ranges play a pivotal role in supplying freshwater for the Central Asian region. There, climate-driven streamflow changes have direct implications on freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower potential. The objective of this thesis is to assess the impacts of climate change on glaciers, rock glaciers and water availability in the Tien Shan region. For this purpose, a comprehensive literature review has been carried out as a basis for a climate change impact case study. Modeling results showed that glaciers in the peripheral Tien Shan ranges might in a worst-case-scenario disappear completely by the end of the 21st century and that summer runoff will decrease in the future – even in the most optimistic scenarios. Seasonal water shortages might be attenuated by an increasing contribution of thawing permafrost, e.g. rock glaciers. We show that rock glaciers react directly – much like glaciers – and regionally synchronously to climatic fluctuations, particularly temperature. SORG, Annina. Impacts of climate change on glaciers, rock glaciers and wate