ASSESSING RISK OF THE NATURAL REGENERATION OF INTRODUCED CONIFERS, OR WILDING SPREAD

Two decision support systems (DSS) have been developed to assess (a) the threat of introduced conifer (wilding) spread from new plantings and (b) the risk of wildings establishing at any particular site. Scores DUH JLYHQ IRU ULVN IDFWRUV UHODWHG WR WKH VSHFLHV LQYROYHG WKHLU spreading vigour (includes seedling growth rate, age of coning, seed production and seed weight), palatability, siting of the parent seed trees, and vegetation cover and land use, particularly downwind of WKHVHHGVRXUFH7KHPD[LPXPSRVVLEOHVFRUHLVDQGVFRUHVDERYH 12 (DSSa) and 14 (DSSb) indicate high levels of risk. The two DSSs can be used by land managers to quickly assess the likely risk of wilding spread, and to test how they might lower the risk by changing input factors. In this way, spread risk can be mitigated or avoided by good decision-making prior to unwanted wilding spread occurring