Final Report.

This study examines the relative earnings of black men from a time series perspective covering 1930 to 1990. Regression analyses were fitted to annual data to isolate factors responsible for changes in relative earnings. National and regional data on population growth and employment growth by industry were analyzed to determine the degree of spatial mismatch between jobs and workers. The following main conclusions are reported: (1) little evidence was found of a largescale upward trend in relative earnings operating over the entire period from the early 1950s through 1987; (2) relative earnings gains since the early 1950s occurred largely in one period, between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s; (3) unlike many earlier studies that found positive effects from the unemployment rate or deviations from the level of resource utilization on relative earnings, this analysis did not find significant effects from the unemployment rate or deviations of actual output from full employment output; and (4) there was significant evidence that accelerated,.1clines since 1969 in the share of jobs located in seven large northern states and in heavy industries have acted to reduce black men's relative earnings by as much as 18 percent in 1986 and 1987, with average overall losses of nine percent or less. A list of 18 references and statistical data on three graphs and nine tables are appended. (FMW) ******************t**************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made