The Development and Use of a Dropout Prediction Scale

The development of two instruments to predict and diagnose drop-out are described. The first, Personality and Educational Environ-ment Scales (PEES) is based on a theoretical model developed from Carl Rogers self concept theory. Also described are the items, format, factor structure, and application of a 23 item Semantic Differential type Dropout Prediction Scale (D.P.S.). Data gathered from participants in two New Zealand adult education institutions demonstrate the predictive power of the D.P.S. The most powerful predictions are obtained from the use of two forms of the D.P.S. and a simple discrepancy scoring method. Implications of D.P.S. findings for adult education processes are discussed. THE PROBLEM Adult educators need not be reminded that dropout is a continuing problem. Hallenbeck (7) describes it as the &dquo;old story&dquo; and even Thoma