PREDICTING QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE VALUES OF RECREATION PARTICIPATION

ABSTRACT. If future recreation consumption and associated in-tangible values can be predicted, the problem of rapid decision-making in recreation-resource management can be reduced, and the problems of implementing those decisions can be anticipated. Man-agement and research responsibilities for meeting recreation demand are discussed, and proved methods for forecasting recreation use and associated qualitative values are presented. The best approach for developing recreation-participation rate equations may be to include a distance factor, recreation-supply variables, socio-economic measurements of users and non-users, and qualitative measures of recreation environments- all in the same model. The effects of technological progress on values and behavior patterns are described; and methods for forecasting relevant technological advances are outlined. MERICANS, with more time on their A hands and more money to spend than ever before, boomed leisure into an 83-billion-dollar business in 1969. (U. S. News and World Report 1969). That figure tops the total outlay for national de-fense during the same year. The money going into outdoor recreation activities and e uipment reaches into almost every aspect 9 o the Nation's economy. Today, pleasure is business. And it's the fastest-growing business in the land. Behind the scenes, serving the ever-increasing demand for the trappings of leisure, are the muscle and sinew of Amer-ican technology. But the responsibilities of meeting the quantitative and qualitative as-pects of outdoor recreation demand for forests, mountains, lakes, and streams on public and private lands rests squarely on the shoulders of recreation resource plan-ners and managers. This paper deals with the problems of forecasting the quantitative and qualitative aspects of outdoor recreation participation. At times this objective seems almost in-solvable, for this is a dangerous corner in the research arena where natural sciences and social philosophies collide with a re-sounding crash