How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process

Policy makers at all levels of decision making in organizations use multiple criteria to analyze their complex problems. Multicriteria thinking is used formally to facilitate their decision making. Through trade-offs it clarifies the advantages and disadvantages of policy options under circumstances of risk and uncertainty. It is also a tool vital to forming corporate strategies needed for effective competition. Nearly all of us, in one way or another, have been brought up to believe that clearheaded logical thinking is our only sure way to face and solve problems. We also believe that our feelings and our judgments must be subjected to the acid test of deductive thinking. But experience suggests that deductive thinking is not natural. Indeed, we have to practice, and for a long time, before we can do it well. Since complex problems usually have many related factors, traditional logical thinking leads to sequences of ideas that are so tangled that their interconnections are not readily discerned. The lack of a coherent procedure to make decisions is especially troublesome when our intuition alone cannot help us to determine which of several options is the most desirable, or the least objectionable, and neither logic nor intuition are of help. Therefore, we need a way to determine which objective outweighs another, both in the near and long terms. Since we are concerned with real-life problems we must recognize the necessity for trade-offs to best serve the common interest. Therefore, this process should also allow for consensus building and compromise. Individual knowledge and experience are inadequate in making decisions concerning the welfare and quality of life for a group. Participation and debate are needed both among individuals and between the groups affected. Here two aspects of group decision making have to be considered. The first is a rather minor complication, namely, the discussion and exchange within the group to reach som