Hybrid causal logic methodology for risk assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment is being increasingly used in a number of industries such as nuclear, aerospace, chemical process, to name a few. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) characterizes risk in terms of three questions: (1) What can go wrong? (2) How likely is it? (3) What are the consequences? Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies answer these questions by systematically postulating and quantifying undesired scenarios in a highly integrated, top down fashion. The PRA process for technological systems typically includes the following steps: objective and scope definition, system familiarization, identification of initiating events, scenario modeling, quantification, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance ranking, and data analysis. Fault trees and event trees are widely used tools for risk scenario analysis in PRAs of technological systems. This methodology is most suitable for systems made of hardware components. A more comprehensive treatment of risks of technical systems needs to consider the entire environment within which such systems are designed and operated. This environment includes the physical environment, the socio-economic environment, and in some cases the regulatory and oversight environment. The technical system