Consistent output series for the antebellum and postbellum periods: Issues and preliminary results

Existing output series that cover both the antebellum and postbellum periods are inconsistent and unsuitable for comparing cyclical patterns across the nineteenth century. More consistent data show that output in cyclically sensitive sectors was no less, and probably more, volatile before the War Between the States than after it. ime-series data on aggregate output can reveal historical changes in the characteristics of business cycles: patterns in output move-ments and relations between output and financial events or other macroeconomic variables such as price levels. Associating changes in cyclical patterns with developments in economic structure and institu-tions is an important job for economic historians and may bear on issues in macroeconomic theory. Comparisons across historical periods re-quire series that are consistent across those periods, constructed in the same way from the same kinds of information. Otherwise one may mistake incomparabilities in the data for changes over time in economi