Family Formation in Post-Soviet Ukraine: Changing Effects of Education in a Period of Rapid Social Change

Focusing on post-Soviet Ukraine, this paper examines how social transformations changed family formation, leading to the world’s lowest fertility rate. The findings show that before Ukraine gained independence, highly educated women had higher first birth rates after controlling for school enrollment and marriage. After independence, highly educated women began to delay childbearing. In contrast, second birth and marriage rates declined after independence, but the effect of education on these events did not change. Explanations for the changing effects of education on first births include the restructured educational system, shifting opportunity costs, reduction in childcare benefits, and exposure to new ideas and values. This study demonstrates how societal-level change not only alters the composition of individual-level characteristics in a population, but also affects the relationship between factors and behavior. This study provides an unusual opportunity to observe how the influence of education on family formation changes during a period of rapid political, social and economic transformation. Sociologists have long been interested in how social change promotes change on the individual level (Axinn and Yabiku 2001; Coleman 1990; Durkheim [1893]1984; Hallinan 1997; Thornton and Lin 1994), but few studies have documented how the relationship between an important factor and behavior reverses during a period of radical social change. This study examines education, widely recognized as an important determinant of social change (Axinn and Barber 2001; Coleman 1990). In particular, education has had a substantial impact on the family in a number of settings (Axinn and Barber 2001; Kasarda, Billy and West 1986; Lloyd, Kaufman and Hewett 2000). These effects usually operate in one direction, for example, higher education leads to fertility decline, or later ages at marriage and birth. This analysis, however, shows that the relationship between education and behavior is not always constant, even within the same setting. I analyze three family formation behaviors – marriage, first and second births – and find tha