Racially Polarized Voting in a Southern U.S. Election: How Urbanization and Residential Segregation Shape Voting Patterns*

Abstract. This paper advances a model of racially polarized voting that captures the intervening effects of urbanization and residential segregation on white voters ’ political behavior. The model is tested for a 2011 referendum election in the U.S. state of Mississippi. Using King’s method of ecological inference and weighted least squares regression, we find that regional minority population size impacts white opposition to minority-preferred political alternatives both directly and indirectly through an effect on residential racial segregation. Importantly, these influences hinge on intra-regional patterns of urbanization. The findings have important implications fo