Independent Consultant

The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quanti-tative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organizations. All the results presented for EU en-ergy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilib-rium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system and the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses, and technolo-gies. The results of this analysis indicate that the EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emis-sions reductions it undertook at Kyoto unless it intro-duces policy initiatives for the abatement of energy-related emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household, and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions, the electricity- and steam-generation sector appears to offer the greatest potential because of its relative flexibility in terms of technology and fuel choice. Fi-nally, when the only criterion for emissions reductions is economic efficiency, our analysis indicates that re-duction levels differ significantly among EU countries. Key words: Energy analysis, energy forecasting, energy market, environment, European Unio