AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER AND TIMING OF BIRTHS

ii This thesis represents an intensive econometric study of two important aspects of reproductive behavior-- namely the level of fertility and the intervals between births. The analysis is economics-based, but the standard microeconomic framework is extended to take into account the effects of social factors on reproduction. The estimation is based on data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey. The initial analysis of the determinants of fertility (defined as the number of children ever born per woman) is conducted within a static framework, and three alternative statistical models (OLS, Poisson, and ordered-Iogit) are estimated and the results compared. Fertility decision-making is then modelled as a dynamic sequential-response process, with particular attention to the effects of sex preference and child mortality on subsequent fertility. The analysis of birth intervals is based on the estimation of both non-parametric life table methods and the (semi-parametric) proportional hazard model