Prediction of existing gully erosion in vineyard parcels of the NE Spain: a logistic modelling approach

This paper presents a study of determining factors and a method to predict the existence of gully erosion in vineyard parcels. The Alt Penedès-Anoia region (Catalonia, NE Spain), mainly dedicated to the cropping of vineyards for high quality wine production, was selected as the case study area. Single factors related to the existence of gully erosion were determined by means of statistical tests (Student’s t-test and chi-square). The existence of gully erosion was predicted by means of a multivariate procedure. A stepwise selection of variables (relief, soil, land use/management characteristics) was performed, which allowed the identification of factors that present a significant relationship with the existence of gully erosion. The selected factors, slope degree and planar slope form, were considered as independent variables in a logistic regression of binary response. The model computes the probability that gullies exist in given vineyard parcels, and it can be implemented in a raster-based geographical information system (GIS). The assessment of the model in 52 parcels, different from the training data set, yielded an overall accuracy of 84.6%. The predictive model can be applied for areas with similar conditions, but the modelling approach can be applied in other different areas. # 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved