Old Nails in New Coffins: The Para Bellum Hypothesis Revisited

Earlier studies of the relationship between arms race and the escalation of conflict into war have shown strong correlations. However, it could be argued that the arms race is necessary to prevent one party gaining preponderance, and preponderance would in itself be more dangerous: the para bellum hypothesis. With the use of indices of superiority as well as of differential growth, this hypothesis can be tested, using the Correlates of War data on military expenditure and military confrontations and applying LOGIT analysis. When comparing these results to the ones achieved by an arms race index, it is clear that the latter has a far greater explanatory power