0 Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Species in

In this study, we evaluate the climate change vulnerability of a subset of key species found in the Cumberland Piedmont Network (CUPN) of the National Park Service (NPS), an ecologically important and diverse region. We developed a list of species of conservation concern (globally and sub-nationally) within each of the fourteen NPS units in the CUPN. Next, we employed NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) in order to determine which of those species may be most vulnerable to climate change, based on each species ’ 1) direct exposure to climate change, 2) indirect exposure to climate change, 3) sensitivity, and 4) documented/ modeled response to climate change. CCVI results showed a range of vulnerability scores among taxonomic groups, including high vulnerability for mollusks and low vulnerability for migrant songbirds. Furthermore, we found that species of conservation concern were not necessarily those most vulnerable to climate change. Additionally, we modeled the current and projected habitat suitability in 2050 and 2080 for four case study species, three that were assessed by the CCVI to be vulnerable to climate change and one assessed to be presumed stable. We used the software package MaxEnt (chosen modelin