DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

The long-term scientific goals of this research project are: 1. To develop an understanding of how some observations affect ocean predictability. 2. To further develop the state-of-the-art ROMS 4D-Var by extending the observational types and applications. 3. To gain experience and develop ideas for the limitations to the predictability of oceanic processes. 4. To train a new generation of students in data assimilation and ROMS. 5. As a YIP award, to strengthen the early career and build the research path for myself as young faculty. OBJECTIVES The primary objectives of this project are: (i) explore the capabilities of a real-time ocean state-estimation and prediction system; (ii) to assess how particular observations may affect predictabil ity; (iii) to compare these results with full ocean-state estimates generated from the ΨEX acoustic experiment; and, (iv) provide means to build a research program for early career scientist. APPROACH In this YIP award, my aim is to characterize the factors that control predictability in the ocean, particularly around Hawaii and the North Philippine Sea (which resides within the internal wave train from the Luzon Strait as well as interacting internal waves generated at the Mariana is lands). To accomplish this goal requires a number of studies into understanding the role of internal tides interacting with mesoscale energy, quantifying the role of observations in sampling such difficult dynamical regimes, extending the capability of the assimilation procedure to utilize advanced observational datasets (high-frequency radar and acoustic tomography), develop further improvements to the state-estimation procedure, and to help quantify the role of errors in models. Furthermore, as a YIP award, the goal is to build a successful academic research program unde