The effect of reasoning logics on real-time decision making

Abstract—The advent of satellite tracking and communications technology has motivated organizations to investigate centralized real-time support for remote and mobile units and operations. Transportation companies have begun to use satellite tracking systems, production and energy plants are employing intelligent monitoring systems, and on-site emergency managers are being supported by headquarters in their assessment and decision making process. Although different reasoning logics have been proposed for real-time decision making, little attention has been given to the comparative assessment of these approaches. This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of alternative reasoning logics on individual decision making in real-time. Following the definition of the decision tasks for hazardous opera-tions, commonly used reasoning logics are discussed. Then, results of an empirical comparison of different reasoning approaches are presented. The data were gathered during an experiment with experienced operators. The conclusions of this research are that the selection of the appropriate reasoning logic in support of real-time decision making is crucial. Index Terms—Accuracy, decision support systems, effort, op-erational risk management, time pressure. I