Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0080-2 Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys

Abstract The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on 95 % of the land areas of the Florida Keys were estimated through analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements in a geographic information system. The topographic detail of the LiDAR DEM allowed projections of land, population, and property inundation in 0.15 m increments across a broad range of SLR scenarios for the next century. The results showed that a 0.6 m SLR by 2100 would inundate about 70 % of the total land surface, but smaller percentages of the population (17%) and real property (12%). A 1.5 m rise in sea level during the same period would inundate 91 % of the land surface, 71 % of the population and 68 % of property in the study area. Comparison of inundation dynamics indicates that the Lower Florida Keys are more susceptible to SLR than the Upper Florida Keys. The inundation dynamics exhibit non-linear behavior and demonstrate tipping points in inundation processes beyond which the inundation of land, population, and property speeds up. Acceleration of SLR will amplify the non-linear inundation, causing tipping points to be reached sooner