The influence factors of short-term international capital flows in China —Based on state space model

Abstract. Based on international short-term capital as the object, this paper analyzed the main factors which affect capital flows before and after the financial crisis, from the study, we found that: long-standing spreads and the RMB appreciation expectations are the main factors that lead to short-term capital inflows to our country in recent years. Although, the effect of expected factors is more obvious, the role of spreads at home and abroad is also strengthened ， at the same time, the influencing factors of short-term capital flows present obvious nonlinear relationship with short-term capital flows, so the traditional estimation method has shortcoming