Trends in joint quantiles of temperature and precipitation in Europe since 1901 and projected for 2100. Geophys

[1] This study assesses the changes in the exceedances of joint extremes of temperature and precipitation quantiles for a number of sites in Europe. The combination of cool/dry, cool/ wet, warm/dry and warm/wet modes reveals a systematic change at all locations investigated in the course of the 20th century, with significant declines in the frequency of occurrence of the ‘‘cold’ ’ modes and a sharp rise in that of the ‘‘warm’ ’ modes. The changing behavior of these four modes is also accompanied by changes in the particular conditions of temperature and precipitation associated with each mode; for example, the average amount of precipitation during cool/wet events decreases while that during warm/ wet events increases, even though mean precipitation at most locations shows no significant trend. In a ‘‘greenhouse climate’’, the ‘‘cool’ ’ modes are almost totally absent by 2100 whereas the warm/dry and warm/wet modes pursue the progression already observed in the 20th century