SPECIAL SECTION-ASSESSMENT OF SCHEMES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION Earthquake prediction: a critical review

Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible. Key word: Earthquake prediction. ‘Should a technical issue ever be considered to have real news value, the mass media will provide the publicity. Such instances are relatively rare, and the favored topics tend to be alleged breakthroughs that may perhaps lead to a cure for cancer, or more exact prediction of earthquakes, or greatly improved crop yields. Such stories usually include interviews with, or quotes from, the researchers concerned. The possibility of such exposure is almost irresistibly alluring to scientists.’-Felix Franks 1981. Polywater, MIT Press, pp. 126-127.