IOS Press 3 Beyond runs expectancy

Abstract. George Lindsey was one of the first to present run scoring distributions of teams of Major League Baseball. One drawback of Lindsey’s approach is that his calculations represented a situation where the team is average. By use of a multi-nomial/multilevel modeling approach, we look more carefully how run-scoring distributions vary between teams and how run-scoring is affected by different covariates such as ballpark, pitcher quality, and clutch situations. By use of exchangeable models over ordinal regression coefficients, one gets a better understanding which covariates represent meaningful differences between run-scoring of teams