Severity Index Scores in Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Background/Aims: The aim of this study is to assess serum procalcitonin (PCT) for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis compared with multiple scoring systems and biomarkers. Methods: Forty-four patients with acute pancreatitis confirmed by radiological evidences, laboratory assessments, and clinical manifestation were prospectively enrolled. All blood samples and image studies were obtained within 24 hours of admission. Results: Acute pancreatitis was graded as severe in 19 patients and mild in 25 patients according to the Atlanta criteria. Levels of serum PCT were significantly higher in severe acute pancreatitis (p=0.001). The accuracy of serum PCT as a predicting marker was 77.3%, which was similar to the acute physiology and chronic health examination (APACHE)-II score, worse than the Ranson score (93.2%) and better than the Balthazar CT index (65.9%). The most effective cut-off level of serum PCT was estimated at 1.77 ng/mL (AUC=0.797, 95 % CI=0.658-0.935). In comparision to other simple biomarkers, serum PCT had more accurate value (77.3%) than C-reactive protein (68.2%), urea (75.0%) and lactic dehydrogenase (72.7%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that serum PCT has statistical significance in acute severe pancreatitis. Assessment of serum PCT levels and length of hospital stay by simple linear regression analysis revealed effective p-value with low R square level, which could make only possibilty for affection of serum PCT to admission duration (r2=0.127, p=0.021). Conclusions: Serum PCT was a promising simple biomarker and had similar accuracy of APACHE-II scores as predicting severity of acute pancreatitis. (Korean J Gastroenterol 2011;58:31-37