Open Access Predicting Annual Fecundity from Nest Success

Abstract: Nest success, the probability that a nest will fledge offspring, is a widely measured parameter in ornithological studies, and is usually estimated by monitoring the fates of nests throughout a breeding season. Because nest success es-timates are commonly reported in the avian literature, a key question in population studies is how to derive annual fecun-dity rates, F (a vital parameter in population biology), from nest success data when breeding individuals are not marked. In this manuscript, we describe a simple, recursive model that generates an estimate of the frequency distribution of an-nual fecundity rates that can be achieved for a species, given precise and unbiased estimates of nest success, the average number of young that fledge per successful nest, and three life history parameters: the maximum number of possible suc-cessful broods per breeding season (J), the maximum number of possible nesting attempts per breeding season (K), and the maximum brood size (B). We illustrate the model for 3 hypothetical species in which the average young that fledge per successful nest is 2 offspring: (1) a single-brooded species in which J =1, K = 3, B = 3; (2) a double-brooded specie