Comparative epidemiology of citrus tristeza in Cuba and citrus sudden death in Brazil

Citrus Sudden Death (CSD) is a disease of unknown etiology, reported only in Brazil. Due to similarities between the epidemiology of CSD in Brazil and Citrus Tristeza (CT) in other countries, this work aimed to compare CSD and CT in Cuba. Besides testing the hypothesis of shared epidemiological patterns, the data generated can be used to carry out control strategies if CSD breaks out in Cuba. Seven epidemic data sets were statistically compared for each disease by analyzing their progress in time and the dependence among symptomatic or infected plants at two levels of spatial scale. CSD and CT epidemics could not be differentiated based on mean progress rate, area under disease progress curves, proportion of aggregated sequences (Ordinary runs test), index of Dispersion (D) or both parameters, log (A) and b, of the binary power law model. The progress rate of both diseases varied from low (0.0003/month) to very high (0.045/month). The proportion of aggregated sequences was low (<0.16) and D, log(A) and b values indicated aggregation in groups of 4 to 16 plants for both diseases. These results suggest that measures currently used for CT eradication and management in Cuba may be applied in case of an eventual introduction of CSD in that country