Assessing Public Opinion After 9/11 and Before the Iraq War

This study evaluates the frequency with which polls about Iraq and terrorism were fielded and reported in the media between September 11, 2001 and October 11, 2002. A content analysis of 4,481 poll questions and 4,964 references to poll-based public opinion in the media was conducted. There are strong relationships between media coverage of public opinion and the assessment of public opinion via polls. This study also examines whether the frequency with which the public was asked about Iraq and terrorism was related to the public’s concern about these issues and to political elites’ emphasis of these issues. Results suggest that public opinion polls do not consist-ently correspond with either the public salience of issues or the rhetoric of political elites. Instead, this paper argues, public opinion assessment is guided by prominent presidential speeches as well as by the priorities of the media. An analysis of how questions about Iraq and terrorism were phrased provides additional support for the influence of elites. Implications for the ability of polls to capture public opinion are discussed