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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed In this paper we apply an econometric model of civil war to the analysis of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that Africa has had a similar incidence of civil conflict to that of other developing regions, and that, with minor exceptions, its conflicts are consistent with the global pattern of behavior. However, the structure of risk differs considerably from other regions. Africa’s economic characteristics have made it more vulnerable to conflict, but this has been offset by social characteristics which make its societies atypically safe. We then analyze the contrasting trends of conflict: rising in Africa and declining in other regions. We show that these trends are predicted by the model. Africa’s rising trend of conflict is due to its atypically poor economic performance. 1 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated recentl