North-Holland THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVEMENTS IN CONTRACEPTION ON FERTILITY AND ABORTION IN WESTERN COUNTRIES *

Abstract. Survey information on fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use, contraceptive failures and abortions is used to develop estimates of unwanted births and of unplanned pregnancies for seven countries, by method of contraception. Potential improvements in contraception, leading to more use of highly efficient methods are considered, and several scenarios for improved contraceptive use are presented. The impact each would have on fertility levels and on abortion rates is estimated. Although improvements in contraception will have only a limited impact on fertility- which is already very low- their impact on abortion could be considerable. R~sum~. L'impact potentiel du progr~s de la contraception sur la f~condit ~ et l'avorte-ment darts les pays occidentaux Les auteurs utilisent des donn6es d'enqu&es sur les intentions de procr6ation, le recours/ ~ la contraception, les 6checs de la contraception et l 'avortement pour 6valuer les naissances non d6sir6es et les grossesses non planifi6es, selon la m&hode de contraception utilis6e, dans sept pays. Ils envisagent d'6ventuels progr~s de la con-traception conduisant / tun 61argissement de l'emploi de m6thodes tr~s efficaces, e