Pathways to State Failure

Attempts to forecast or remedy state failure would benefit from a clearer view of the multiple pathways that can lead states to fail. This paper delineates five pathways: esca-lating ethnic conflicts, state predation, regional guerrilla rebellion, democratic collapse, and succession/reform crises in authoritarian states. Each of these five pathways in-volves changes in the legitimacy and effectiveness of regimes; state failures follow upon the loss of both legitimacy and effectiveness. Examples are provided and guidelines are offered for efforts to avert failure in fragile states