JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTIONMurdoch, Sandler / GROWTH, CIVIL WARS, AND SPILLOVERS Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers

A neoclassical growth model is used to empirically test for the influences of a civil war on steady-state income per capita both at home and in neighboring countries. This model provides the basis for measuring long-run and short-run effects of civil wars on income per capita growth in the host country and its neighbors. Evidence of significant collateral damage on economic growth in neighboring nations is uncovered. In addi-tion, this damage is attributed to country-specific influences rather than to migration, human capital, or invest-ment factors. As the intensity of the measure used to proxy the conflict increases, there are enhanced neigh-bor spillovers. Moreover, collateral damage from civil wars to growth is more pronounced in the short run. The most formidable challenge to the international security system at the global and re-gional levels is the fragility and erosion of the states which are not capable of managing developments on their territory.... The strength and effectiveness of state institutions and structures are reduced most often in poor countries torn apart by civil wars and centrifugal tendencies. —Rotfeld (1999, 1) Even during times of relative peaceful coexistence among major powers, civil wars with 1,000 or more battle deaths have plagued nations throughout this century (Singe