Stockholm Summary •

This study deals with the application of operational research methods to a specific plan-ning problem connected with current Swedish agricultural policy. It is therefore of partic-ular interest to countries where- as in Sweden- an important policy goal is to assure self-sufficiency in the matter of food products in case of a national emergency such as a trade blockade or military aggression. The application of operational research methods to the above-mentioned problem, how-ever, raises some problems of a more theoretical character. A procedure for the analysis of the consequences of certain random variables by a combination of programming and simulation models is thus developed The study may therefore as well have a certain interest within a wider context. 1. The problem An important goal for the current Swedish agricultural policy is to secure satisfactory food supplies in the event of a national emergency when there would be no external supplies from other countries.1 It is outside the scope of the present study to discuss the alternative emergencies relevant in this context. The analysis will thus be limited to the case of a trade blockade, expected to last up to three years. This is regarded as a basic alternative according to available official documents. The food requirements during a blockade are determined by the size of the popula-* The work presented in this paper has been Aim, M Agr, who has assisted in developing financially supported by the National Agri- the simulation modeL cultural Marketing Board and the Royal 1. Other goals concern the income level of th