Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations

We re-examine the evidence on the relationship between credit spreads and eco-nomic activity, by constructing a credit spread index based on an extensive data set of prices of outstanding corporate bonds trading in the secondary market. Compared with the standard default-risk indicators, our credit spread index is a robust predictor of economic activity at both the short- and longer-term horizons. Using an empirical framework, we decompose the index into a predictable component that captures the available firm-specific information on expected defaults and a residual component—the excess bond premium—which we argue likely reflects variation in the price of default risk rather than variation in the risk of default. Our results indicate that the predictive content of credit spreads for economic activity is due primarily to movements in the excess bond premium. Innovations in the excess bond premium that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy are shown to lead to significant declines in economic activity and equity prices. We also show that a deterioration in the creditworthiness of broker-dealers—key financial intermediaries in the corporate cash market—causes an increase in the excess bond premium. These findings support the notion that a rise in the excess bond premium represents a reduction in the effective risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector and, as a result, a contraction in the supply of credit with significant adverse consequences for the macroeconomy