Predicting Renal Risk in the General Population: Do We Have the Right Formula?

The widespread implementation of automated report-ing of estimated GFR (eGFR) with each measurement of serum creatinine has resulted in the identification of large numbers of patients with previously undiag-nosed chronic kidney disease (CKD). Epidemiologic studies have reported that CKD is relatively common, affecting up to 16.8 % of the adult population (1), but it is clear that patients with CKD are a heterogeneous group with variable prognosis and only a minority progress to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (2). There is thus a need for methods to predict the risk for future progression of CKD. This will allow patients at high risk to be identified for treatment to slow pro-gression and those at low risk to be reassured and spared unnecessary intervention. The need for ris