Using weighted Kaplan-Meier statistics in nonparametric comparisons of paired censored survival outcomes

SUMMARY. This research introduces methods for nonparametric testing of weighted integrated survival differences in the context of paired censored survival designs. The current work extends work done by Pepe and Fleming (1989, Bzometrics 45, 497-507), which considered similar test statistics directed toward independent treatment group comparisons. An asymptotic closed-form distribution of the proposed family of tests is presented, along with variance estimates constructed under null and alternative hypotheses using nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the closed-form quantities. The described method allows for additional information from individuals with no corresponding matched pair member to be incorporated into the test statistic in sampling scenarios where singletons are not prone to selection bias. Simulations presented over a range of potential dependence in the paired censored survival data demonstrate substantial power gains associated with taking into account the dependence structure. Consequences of ignoring the paired nature of the data include overly conservafive tests in terms of power and size. In fact, simulation results using tests for independent samples in the presence of positive correlation consistently undershot both size and power targets that would have been attained in the absence of correlation. This additional worrisome effect on operating characteristics highlights the need for accounting for dependence in this popular family of tests