Practice of Epidemiology Isotemporal Substitution Paradigm for Physical Activity Epidemiology andWeight Change

For a fixed amount of time engaged in physical activity, activity choice may affect body weight differently depending partly on other activities ’ displacement. Typical models used to evaluate effects of physical activity on body weight do not directly address these substitutions. An isotemporal substitution paradigm was developed as a new analytic model to study the time-substitution effects of one activity for another. In 1991–1997, the authors longitudinally examined the associations of discretionary physical activities, with varying activity displacements, with 6-year weight loss maintenance among 4,558 healthy, premenopausal US women who had previously lost>5 % of their weight. Results of isotemporal substitution models indicated widely heterogeneous relations with each physical activity type (P < 0.001) depending on the displaced activities. Notably, whereas 30 minutes/day of brisk walking substituted for 30 minutes/day of jogging/running was associated with weight increase (1.57 kg, 95% confidence interval: 0.33, 2.82), brisk walking was associated with lower weight when substituted for slow walking (1.14 kg, 95 % confidence interval: 1.75, 0.53) and with even lower weight when substituted for TV watching. Similar heterogeneous relations with weight change were found for each activity type (TV watching, slow walking, brisk walking, jogging/running) when displaced by other activities across these various models. The isotemporal substitution paradigm may offer new insights for future public health recommendations. body weight changes; epidemiologic methods; models, statistical; motor activity Similar to total energy intake, total hours in a day ar