Publication productivity: From frequency distributions to scientometric indicators

A new approach to scientometric indicators which is based on frequency distribution characteristics is presented. The pub-lication productivity of ten major OECD countries during the 1981-1985 period is studied. A stochastic "cumulative ad-vantage " process having a Waring-type stationary limit distri-bution is assumed to underlie the publication process. This model makes it possible to estimate such indicators as the "Publication Potential " and the "Cumulative Advantage Coef-ficient " which indicate the number of potential and of factual authors and the effect of the "success-breeds-success " phenom-enon, respectively. A discussion of the publication behaviour of the scientific elite based on indicators of the distribution tail concludes the comparative evaluation.