Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry 1985;48:1-6 Who goes home? Predictive factors in stroke recovery

SUMMARY One hundred and seventy two stroke patients were assessed two weeks post-stroke by a multi-disciplinary team. The predictive ability of a number of variables, including social, psycho-logical and physical factors, was estimated for four outcome groups. Highly significant factors for good and bad outcome for one year were identified. Cerebrovascular disease is the third major cause of-death in developed countries. It is the most frequent cause of chronic disability in the UK, ' necessitating a great deal of care involving human and material resources. A study was planned to investigate whether it was possible to predict, on the basis of simple assess-ments in the early stages of illness, the probable out-come of a patient's stroke in practical terms with regard to his future needs. It was thought likely that factors other than the purely clinical ones might play a part and a multidisciplinary team consisting of a doctor, psychologist, physiotherapist and occup-ational therapist seemed appropriate. The help of a statistical expert was also provided throughout the project. Clinical features indicative of early death in the acute stage are well known.2 Our main interest was in the possibility of differentiating between patients likely to achieve domestic and/or personal independence to the extent of becoming able to live in the community and those needing long term institu-tional care. We also wished to determine what, if any, effect rehabilitative treatment has on the course of recovery and outcome