jnci.oxfordjournals.org JNCI | In This Issue 1337 IN THIS ISSUE Modeling the Incidence of Breast

Although breast cancer incidence in China is currently low compared with that in Western countries, the distribution of breast cancer risk factors among Chinese women is changing rapidly. To predict future trends in the inci-dence of breast cancer in China associated with changes in demographic and reproduc-tive factors, Linos et al. (p. 1352) validated and calibrated the Rosner – Colditz log-inci-dence breast cancer model in Chinese women who participated in the Shanghai Women ’ s Health Study and then applied the validated model to Chinese national survey data. Breast cancer incidence in China is expected to increase from the current estimated rate of 10 – 60 cases per 100,000 women to more than 100 cases per 100,000 women aged 55 – 69 years by 2021. The modeling predicts 2.5 mil-lion cases of breast cancer by 2021 among Chinese women who were 35 – 49 years old in 2001. Modest reductions in hormone and alcohol use and weight maintenance are pre-dicted to prevent approximately 10 % of these cases. In an editorial, Ziegler et al. (p. 1339) discuss the assumptions made by Linos et al., and compare this modeling approach with simple extrapolations of empirical breast can-cer incidence data for rural and urban regions of China. They also discuss why the esti-mates of the impact of changes in modifi able risk factors on breast cancer incidence in China may be more uncertain than analyses suggest