A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland

This study estimates the vulnerability of Latin American agriculture to climate change using a Ricardian analysis of both land values and net revenues. Examining a sample of over 2200 farms, the results indicate both land value and net revenue are sensitive to climate. Both small farms and large farms have a hill-shaped relationship with temperature. Estimating separate regressions for rainfed and irrigated farms reveals that rainfed farms are more sensitive to temperature but irrigated farms are more sensitive to precipitation. Examining the impacts from future climate change scenarios reveals that severe scenarios could reduce farm earnings by as much as 62 % by 2100 whereas more moderate scenarios could reduce earnings by about 15%. Small and large farms are equally sensitive to global warming. Land value and net revenue analyses produce quite similar results