THE STRATEGY OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS by

Do campaigns have an effect on the outcome of elections? This question is usually answered using one of two methods. The first method is when political pundits examine the two opposing campaigns and judge which one had a greater impact on the polls. The second method is when political scientists use statistical methods to analyze whether a campaign had an effect on the election outcome. Both methods fail to consider the factors influencing campaign strategies and the effect these campaign strategies have on the election outcome. A third method, which I present in this dissertation, uses a formal model. This formal model treats the presidential election as a game between the two candidates competing for electoral votes in fifty-one locations. The model incorporates the assumption that the two candidates can have different prior probabilities of winning each state and can have different degrees of effectiveness at getting votes. The solution to this model is straightforward, but interesting. Candidate strategies are determined by the effectiveness of the candidates, the competitiveness of the state, and the state’s electora