Forecasting hotel occupancy rates with time series models: An empirical analysis

This study examines empirically the use of two time series models, BoxJenkins and exponential smoothing, for forecasting hoteloccupancy rates. The models are fitted and tested using actual monthly occupancy rates fora major csnter-city hotel. Both models show a high level of predictive accuracy. Since these models are relatively easy to implement, they should be very useful in actual hotel operations and other applications such as yield management. Key Words: Forecasting, hotel occupancy, time,series models, Box-Jenkins, exponential smoothing, predictive accuracy