Survival probability and prognostic factors for breast cancer patients in

Background: Breast cancer is becoming a public health problem in Vietnam. The mortality to incidence ratio of the disease was ranked second among the most common cancers in women. This study estimates the survival probability at 1, 3, and 5 years following diagnosis and determines prognostic factors for breast cancer mortality in Vietnam. Methods: A survival analysis was conducted based on retrospective data from Hue Central Hospital and the Cancer Registry in Ho Chi Minh City. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, the survival probability of patients with breast cancer was estimated at 1, 3, and 5 years following diagnosis. The covariates among prognostic factors for survival time were studied using an extended Cox proportion hazards model, including time-dependent predictors. Results: Overall survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years following diagnosis were 0.94, 0.83 and 0.74 respectively. Marital status, education level, stage at diagnosis, and hormone therapy were prognostic factors for mortality. For the stage at diagnosis, the relation to the risk of death for breast cancer was 1.32 (95 % CI, 1.221.41). Married women faced a risk of death nearly 1.59 times higher than unmarried women (95 % CI, 1.092.33). Women with higher levels of education and who received hormone therapy had approximately 10 % (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.92; 95 % CI, 0.890.96) and 80 % (HR: 0.22; 95 % CI, 0.120.41) risk reduction of death respectively, compared with those classified as illiterate and those without hormone therapy. Conclusions: The 5-year survival probability of breast cancer was lower in Vietnam than in countries with similar distributions of the stage at diagnosis. Screening programs and related support policies should be developed to increase the life expectancy of women with breast cancer in Vietnam