A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of Sunflower Market in Turkey

Sunflower oil is the most preferred vegetable oil in Turkey. 35 % of total consumption of vegetable oil is sunflower oil. Sunflower seed import is approximately 500-650 thousand tons while sunflower seed production is 800-850 thousand tons in the last years. The main objective of this study is to determine the reasons of deficiency of vegetable oil in Turkey and to suggest some solutions. For this objective, the prospective situation and the market structure of sunflower seed in Turkey has estimated. “One product partial equilibrium analysis ” has been used to estimate the future market structure of sunflower seed. A simulation model from 2003 to 2015 has been created with partial equilibrium analysis. Turkey is a net importer of vegetable oils. Sunflower seed import is approximately 300 thousand tons while crude oil import is approximately 180 thousand tons in 2002. According to the results of simulation model, Turkey will continue to be a net importer for sunflower and other oil seeds. It has been estimated that the sunflower seed import will be approximately 1 million tons and crude oil import will be approximately 400 thousand tons at end of the simulation period (2003-2015). Key words: partial equilibrium analysis; sunflower; econometric analysis; Turkey