Altmatives. J (J975)101-J30. @ North-Holland Publishing Company ‘WORLD ENERGY DYNAMICS: 1969-1989

‘Integrative ’ computer modeling, a method for analyzing policy implications, was used to project the international energy situation until 1989. The increasing dependence of the industrialized countries on Third World energy resources indicated a vulncrability to sup. ply iiiteruptions in those countries. Policy changes aimed at reducing this vulnerability were modeled. Alternatives for limiting energy consumption in industrialized countries proved more effective than alternatives for increasing the production of energy in those countries. The analysis centered on North America as the industrialized region which is most rapidly becoming dependent on Third World resources. Introductim All policymaking originates in information describing a situation. The policymaker analyzes the information and attempts to manipulate the situation to bring about the desired results. Given an accurate analysis of the information, the policymaker can make correct judgements and effec-tively control the situation. An incomplete analysis, however, can lead to unexpected results when translated into policy, often years later. This is especially the case when one deals with a social system whose parts are be-coming increasingly interlocking. Policies designed to affect one part of society aIso affect many other parts. Policies arrived at in one country affect other countries and the world system as a whole. A basic problem in policymaking is understanding the effects of actions in one part of the system on other parts, and on the whole. The problem is not a lack of information, but the lack of an organized framework for unscrambling and understanding it. The computer has proven a potent tool for this purpose with its ability to store and manipulate large amounts of information