Reviews and Commentary USE OF MODELING IN INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY1

Infectious diseases remain the greatest cause of morbidity in the United States (1) and a leading cause of mortality throughout the world (2). Given the importance of these diseases in terms of both human suf-fering and economic impact, a review of the use of mathematical modeling techniques reported in major epidemiologic journals has relevance as an indication of the ad-vancement of knowledge. It is a major as-sumption of this paper that modeling can have a positive impact on disease control. An examination of the use of and trends in mathematical modeling in infectious dis-ease epidemiology is presented. The intent is not to denigrate other descriptive or an-alytic techniques. Indeed, major contribu-tions to the knowledge of the distribution of diseases and of disease determinants will continue to be provided through the carefu