PUBLIC ASSISTANCE AND EARLY FAMILY FORMATION IS THERE A PRONATALIST EFFECT?*

The relationship between public assistance and fertility is examined, focusing on the time of early family formation. The study is based on a representative sample of New York City women who recently had their first child. These women were interviewed twice since their first birth. We found that women in households receiving public assis-tance want fewer children than those in non-recipient households. Moreover, there is no significant difference between recipients and non-recipients on other indices of fertility-related attitudes and be-havior. The data suggest that, in general, public assistance may be a consequence of an untimely birth rather than a stimulus for that birth. Despite growing evidence to the contrary, the belief persists that government subsidies to low income families encourage fertility. In the United States, for example, it is commonly assumed that welfare, tax exemptions for dependents, day care, programs for unwed mothers, to name a few, are a positive incentive t