Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization

Abstract--The choice of a vocational specialization at school is often hampered by the need for labor market information which is not available. This article investigates whether students of the Dutch junior secondary technical schools anticipate future labor market situations. We try to answer this question by introducing two extreme models: the cobweb model and the rational expectations model. By using the estimation results, the extent of the information problem is measured, indicating large mismatches due to unanticipated changes in the labor market. These results suggest the importance of additional public labor market forecasts to assist students ' choices. [JEL I21, J24] I