ORIGINAL ARTICLE Per-capita Alcohol Consumption and All-cause Male Mortality in Australia, 1911–2006

Abstract — Aims: Given the variety of relationships found between alcohol consumption and health using individual data (both negative and positive), the likely impact of changes in population-level alcohol consumption on health at the population level is not clear. This paper uses historical data from 1911 to 2006 to assess the relationship between changes in per-capita alcohol consumption on total male mortality in Australia. Methods: A longitudinal aggregate study using Australian per-capita alcohol consumption and mortality data from 1911 to 2006. Analysis is undertaken using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series methods. Results: Per-capita pure alcohol consumption has a significant association with male all-cause mortality, with an increase (decrease) of 1 l per-capita per year associated with a 1.5 % increase (decrease) in male mortality (controlling for female mortality and smoking rates). The association between per-capita consumption and mortality was significant for all age groups, with a particularly strong effect among 15–29 year olds. Conclusion: These results place Australia in the group of countries for which a positive association between per-capita alcohol consumption and total mortality can be demonstrated. Thus, despite the beneficial effects of alcohol con-sumption on health found in many studies, increases in consumption at the population level in Australia are associated with declines in population health. Thus, per-capita alcohol consumption in Australia is a significant contributor to rates of male mortality, particu-larly among young adults, suggesting an interaction between per-capita consumption and risky episodic drinking. The policie