A RATIONALIST EXPLANATION OF TERRORIST TARGETING

Why do terrorists select the targets that they do? Why do terrorist organizations often eschew simple targets for symbolic ones? And, why in other circumstances, do terrorists avoid symbolism for easy targets? Current explanations only provide a partial account. This project argues that targeting choices are driven by two competing needs for terrorist organizations: public support and operational success. The relative importance of each of these factors then determines what type of target a terrorist organization is more likely to select, either civilian or non-civilian. Following previous literatures, I theorize that terrorist organizations are locked in bargaining interactions with targeted governments for public support. Governments need the assent of the public to govern while terrorist organizations need public support for their continued existence. I then condition this model by considering the role of three factors that can influence this interaction: government attributes, public support, and the presence of competing terrorist organizations. I posit that each has an independent effect on targeting, determining which target types a terrorist organization selects. In particular, attributes suc