VULNERABILITY OF ASSESSING WATER RESOURCES BY THE IMPROVED SET PAIR ANALYSIS by

Climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological processes with glob-al warming. There are many uncertainties in assessing water resources vulnera-bility. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally under climate change, an improved set pair analysis model is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by the analytic hi-erarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of water resources vul-nerability assessment in terms of water cycle, socio-economy, and ecological en-vironment are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability. Improved set pair analysis model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Ningxia with twelve indexes under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the improved set pair analysis model. Results show that Ningxia is higher vulnerability under climate change scenarios. Improved set pair analysis model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. The improved set pair analysis is an extension to the vulnerability assessment model of water resources system. Key words: assessment, water resources vulnerability, climate change, Ningxia, improved set pair analysi